Article
It's all smoke and mirrors
We are 5 days in the conflict initiated by 'The Brotherhood', and so far the Bulgarian-Turkish Alliance is failing, losing both momentum and followers. Presidential Elections are coming soon, and we should expect a change in the Machiavellian scheme in the coming weeks.
What went wrong with the Bulgarian-Turkish alliance?
1. Lack of support
No other foreign state stood up beside them. Furthermore, the citizens of both countries are exhausted and unmotivated to keep the war going. This can be noticed in the attempts of some Turkish MU fighting against their own country as a form of protest. Citizens lose faith and time is still ticking; the situations worsens day-by-day where Bulgaria loses its core provinces repeatedly to either Turkey or to the members of 'The Brotherhood'.
By far, Bulgaria doesn't have the available firepower to carry this war to the end and being an 'unsupported victim' won't help their cause.
Translation
Did your MU start fighting against Turkey as well?
Is this acceptable behavior for a presidential candidate?
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2. Bad foreign relations
Having no allies from the beginning, Bulgaria didn't invest in creating political ties with foreign countries. However, economically speaking they have done surprisingly well, by having low taxes (1% VAT) and promoting foreign investments (2% Import Tax). Despite these facts, it's believed that a poor organisation within the cabinet and the MUs lead to a failure to be tied to stronger countries. Their proxy wars against Greece by helping the Libyan resistance lead to a stronger tie with the 'Union du Maghreb africain' coalition, but Libya signing a NAP recently with Greece (member of 'The Brotherhood') is definitely making the whole scene much more awkward for the Slavs.
Failing to drag any coalition into this war or creating a new, reactive one will sign the death sentence of this war. Every other nation supporting this war is too far away (e.g., USA, Germany) and risking a full-out blown war will endanger the sovereignty of their own country. They support Bulgaria either of economic reasons or to test the waters.
3. Presidential elections
As mentioned earlier, the presidential elections will occur in 4 days. Turkey still has a huge chance to white peace and leave unscattered with every core province if they prove strong-willed. However, Bulgaria in this very moment will share the faith of another subjugated state (e.g., Slovakia or Slovenia) shared within the victors.
Bulgaria is still ceding their provinces to Turkey believing they will get them back. However, with a possible new president, this means they could, in theory, betray the previous 'treaty'. White peacing the big players and keeping the provinces from your ex-ally is a possibility left unexplored.
What's your opinion on this?
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Previous article:
The Bulgarian-Turkish Secret Treaty (5 years ago)
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